Back to Posts

Story of unexpected events and power of data

Unexpected and expected: As every fixed cost is fixed at present moment, but can be variable in long run, every unexpected event can be forecasted (expected) provided we have all the data. Those who have finance background can relate to it, for others, my thoughts below that came to me this morning can explain it better.

Let us assume that planet earth has no life at the moment and the first life (first individual) came into existence at 9 A.M. Let us assume again that the total life span of that individual is just 3 hours (means all the species have a life of 3 hours, and first individual came into existence at 9 A.M.)

When the first generation dies at 12 P.M., he wrote in his book that life is like sun shining in the sky, no too hot, the life is full of bright color.

Let us assume second generation is born at 11 A.M. and he dies natural death at 2 P.M.  He again wrote in his book that life is becoming hotter, there is a slight change in temperature, life is bright color.

Likewise, the fifth generation is born at 5 P.M. (when day started to turn to night). Now he was scared! He wrote in his book: “Sudden unexpected event happened and life is turned to darkness! We must have committed some sin! Our forefathers never saw and mentioned these events!”

It is only after 13 generations’ data is captured and analysed, then it was understood that there is a pattern in the events and something that was not imagined actually does exist.

When you look at the example above and focus on given life span of the individual and data captured by him, at that moment and for that generation there is a forecast that things will remain the same. However, because the data was available in eternity for larger duration, any event that is not captured by one generation is unexpected event for next generation. Which means in an imaginary world, if we have all the data we can predict everything?

I imply this thought to AI. AI performs best when we have large amount of rich and big data available. If data covers more aspects, the algorithms can learn fast and fine tune the result. Which implies that the companies or the countries who develops the capability of capturing and analyzing large amount of data will rule. Data is going to be the next most valuable assets for the economies. This also implies that the organization that has data access can dominate.

According to one estimate China and USA will have 30% of the world’s data by 2030. So, it can be expected that in future there will be more regulations related to sharing of data or monopoly of data resulting in antitrust law related to data etc. It will be interesting to see these events unfolding in-front of our eyes!

Share this post

Back to Posts